Local elections: Devcomms speak on the South-East

James Plumb, Senior Account Executive at DevComms South East, looks at what last week’s local elections mean for the property and planning sector across the region:

Local elections are rarely as anticipated as they were last week, and for good reason. We were treated to more elections across the South East than any other part of England bar London and, perhaps consequently, our regional story is more complex and nuanced than the national headlines.

Maintaining southern ‘blue wall’ strongholds was always a challenge for the Conservatives, who faced the perfect pincer movement from the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. They lost roughly a third of all seat defences across the region last week, including long-standing control of County Councils in East Sussex, Hampshire and West Sussex. Yet there were some bright spots for Kemi Badenoch’s party. In Fareham, a Reform UK target, the Tories comfortably retained control and the party also put on stable showings in West Oxfordshire and Wokingham.

Labour, notably, outperformed their devastating national results in the South East, with the party retaining control of key councils across the region. Adur, Crawley and Reading all saw the return of Labour administrations and in Southampton Labour re-emerged with the largest number of councillors. In Oxford, facing opposition from all angles, Labour lost just one seat overall and will likely continue to form a minority administration on a council they’ve run for almost 20 years.

Despite making net gains across the region, the Greens will likely be disappointed with their showing in the Thames Valley and broader South East. Whilst Zack Polanski’s party took overall control of Hastings Borough Council, the party were unable to capitalise on their national polling bounce. The Greens fell short of making any real dent in Labour’s control of key target councils in urban areas like Reading and Oxford, although they claim to now be in position to challenge for the relevant parliamentary constituencies.

Reform UK were undoubtedly the biggest winners in terms of seats gained across the region, mirroring their strong performance nationally (albeit starting from a base of almost zero). Nigel Farage’s party emerged as the largest party in East Sussex, Havant, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex, but without support from other parties or Independents they will be unable to form stable administrations on any. Ultimately, Farage may be dissatisfied not to have captured more across Hampshire in particular, and across our area there is clear evidence of anti-Reform tactical voting.

The Liberal Democrats continued their incursion into ‘Conservative England’, taking control of both new unitary councils in Surrey with comfortable majorities. Ed Davey’s party strengthened their position on councils such as Eastleigh, Portsmouth, Tunbridge Wells, Winchester and Wokingham, where they will continue leading majority administrations.

Much like other parts of the country, this year’s local elections across the Thames Valley and South East marked the true emergence of five party politics. Our region saw an increase in councils under no overall control, and minority administrations or coalitions could become the new norm. With so many councils hanging finely in the balance, decisions around planning and development may, more than ever, be shaped by parties’ electoral interests, making the landscape ever more difficult to navigate.

Image: Devcomms